QB Stats don't lie

It took my research department all of 15 minutes to learn the following: Hill is on pace to throw 23 interceptions. The most ANY BYU QB has thrown in the past 16 years is…wait for it…14! By…wait for it…TAYSOM HILL–disclaimer: Max Hall also had 14 in 2009, but he also had a tidy 33 TD passes and a superb 8.7 yards/attempt, because he threw accurately DOWNFIELD)! When Taysom threw his 14 picks (2013), he had a barely acceptable 6.7 yards/attempt, so he was just throwing mostly dink and dunks even then. This year his yards/attempt is an abysmal 5.75–you can only get a 5.75 if you throw short AND with poor accuracy. Interestingly, Jake Heaps’ yards/att in 2011, when Cougar nation wanted his head on a pike, was 5.76. But that WAS enough to get him benched for Riley Noodle Arm Nelson, who still managed an exceptional 8.5 yards/attempt. Remember when CougarDom wanted NELSON benched because of all his terrible picks? Well, he threw 7 that year on 202 attempts. So far Taysom has thrown 7 on 151 attempts. Bottom line: Taysom Hill is the least accurate passer we have ever had, even though he throws almost exclusively underneath dig and dump routes, and has the worst ball security–BY A MILE–of any BYU QB in recent memory. You can attribute it to supreme overconfidence that results in terrible decisions, terrible accuracy, or both. But the bottom line is that he is throwing the ball to the wrong guys at AN EPIC PACE. I love Sitake, I love Detmer, I think both will have great careers coaching BYU, but I think it is REALLY obvious to me at least that they made a big mistake playing Hill over Magnum. Magnum threw 10 picks in 446 att AS A FRESHMAN and had an excellent 7.57 yards/att.

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Nice try. But, you leave out important facts like receivers running wrong routs and dropping passes. You also leave out that Hill’s strong asset is his running ability in a hurry up offense, which we aren’t running until the 4th quarter.
I coached basketball and I didn’t try to fit players into my offense and defense. I played the type of game that was my player’s strengths. Ty should do the same thing and we would have won the first three games.
Also, there would be no controversy had Sitaki not gone for 2 point conversions. I believe we win 2 of the last 3 games and are 3-1 at the very least.
As far as throwing short, WVU did that 99% of the time. The difference was their receivers turned those into longer gains because of our defense playing off 15 yards.

I have missed watching most of the games this year but from what little I have seen it seems HIll is a little slower. If he was running with the same speed and burst he had before his last injury I would have no problem with his play… His passing this year stinks so far on paper but has been better in the past. Maybe the superior competition has something to do with it as well. Mangum’s stats against Michigan, Utah, UCLA, and Missouri last year weren’t all that good either.

I think Larimer is cherry picking stats a little bit. If you look at Hills passing stats in 2014 & 2015 they are actually pretty good. He had made marked improvement over 2013 as a passer. So far this year his stats are not good at all. In the five games in which he played in 2014 & 2015 he completed 109 of 166 for a 65.7% completion pct. That is a good pct. He passed for 1243 yard which is 7.5 yards per attempt.and that is good. He had long completions of 56 & 53 yards. The dink and dunk thing may be true this year but that hasn’t always been the case. People who say he has no arm strength aren’t seeing what I see. I think it is plenty strong. He is just off target so far. He passed for 8 touchdowns with only 4 interceptions in the five games in 2014 & 2015. That is an acceptable touchdown to interception ratio. He was throwing an interception once in every 40 attempts and that is perfectly acceptable.Those were good stats for a guy whose strength was running the football. His 2013 passing stats were ok and his running stats were tremendous. Given his potential upside the coaches can’t be faulted for playing him.

If we were 1-3 with Tanner playing everybody would be saying play Hill. What BYUs record would be with Mangum is pure speculation. For all I know it could be 0-4. It is hard to justify pulling the starter except when the game is out of hand. The UCLA game is the one game I could see the coaches giving Hill the hook because the offense wasn’t producing anything. The Arizona game the offense moved the ball fairly well and avoided turnovers but had a hard time punching the ball into the endzone. That is the one game I saw in full and Hill looked ok considering it was his first game in a year and he really didn’t do anything practicing to speak of in the spring. His stats for WV would has been good if you take away 2 of the interceptions.

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Reed, I don’t have anything negative about your post or some of the others except for the word “IF” Great ball clubs, whether they be FB, baseball or any of the others, there is are very few “ifs.” But we are 1 and 3 and there are a LOT of “ifs.” Every team that I know about that has a losing record can point to MANY “ifs” and complain that “if” not for the “ifs” they would be doing much better. The “ifs” are excuses and that is all they are. What I am hoping for and believing is that by 2018 and 2019 the “ifs” will have fled to other teams.

So while I have complaints, I would not call for Hills removal yet but do express, along with others, that “if” the coaches burn most of Mangum’s year and then ask him to mop up the last couple of games that would be sad indeed. I also think Sitake and crew deserve 3 years to get it going, as long as we see significant progress along the way.

Come on Cougars, kick Toledo to Saturn.

His percentage against WVU was 65.7%. What people aren’t picking up, maybe because they are very young or very old (have a little Trump in me) is that Hill does well in the hurry up. Not only with the pass but much better with the run. He had 104 yards and that is what we expect with Hill. I’m convinced that had we ran hurry up all game, Jamaal would have had over 200 yards Hill possibly the same thing.
So, if winning is all important then the coaches have to trash the slowdown offense for this year. To me, that is the real difference.

That’s why I don’t use “if.” My statement is we must use the hurry up offense this year. Plain and simple.

Geez Scott, I was not referencing you - I was speaking generally. You really need to get over yourself, you’re not all that and a can of Pringles.

Very nice analysis. I do have a different perspective.

I did some research today…I was under the impression that Tanner was burning a red shirt year and has been my motivation all along to ask for a change in QB. Tanner did come to BYU a year before his mission but participated under a “gray shirt” year (worked out with the team but not on the team). So; this is his red shirt year “if” Hill stays healthy and does not mess things up too bad. Very big point!

Back to Hill and his diagnosis. I do not recall anyone accusing him of lacking arm strength, everything that I have been saying and reading from others is that Hill lacks “touch”. His balls are all over the place, sometimes 20 yards out of place. That out that Hill has been “picked 6” in the Utah game, the UCLA game and WV game is something that you do maybe once as a Freshman, then you wise up and resolve never to do again. Hill tries to do it once a game. Throwing too hard into the middle on a 5 yard gain is just asking to be picked off because it always zings through our guy’s hands and flies high, an easy gift for DBs. The few bombs that Hill has thrown, and they are rare, he just heaves it toward our receiver. I played QB in HS and won the BYU intermural not once, but twice and there were plenty of ex D1 players on those teams. If it was single coverage I always told the receiver, its coming on your “safe side”, the defender has either got to interfere or you are going to make the catch.

You mention Mangum and how he might not be as successful under the same 4 games. Who knows! I will grant you that but I do remember that the 1st two games he ever played in, he won with a Hail Mary, magnificent bombs. I also know that Utah turned the ball over 5 times and still won, in my book, that is unforgivable.

Since I was wrong on the Tanner red shirt question, I now understand why Detmer has been reluctant to insert Tanner, choosing to play out this season and have Tanner for 3 more years. This year is over, independence made sure of that so answer me this:

Would you sit another year if you had an NFL arm? Tanner was co-MVP with Winston, a Heisman and NFL starter.

Is he so loyal that willing to do what is best for the team even if it costs him in draft status and $$$illions. Remember, there are no guarantees in football, you are just one injury away from losing it all.

You are getting ahead of yourself with Tanner. Who knows what the future will be if Tanner doesn’t take to the slowdown game either. See, it’s up to the coaches to use an offense that the players do well in.
You continue to bypass the fact that when we go into hurry up the team rhythm changes and Hill and others do better. If Hill runs better in the hurry up then Detmer has to go to it now because the whole idea was Williams and Hill would be a nightmare for defenses.

Let’s say Tanner sits and takes a RS year. By the end of his junior year, which would then be his third as a starter, he and everyone else will know FOR SURE whether he is NFL material. If so, he’d be insane to stay at BYU AFTER HE’S ALREADY GRADUATED and pass on the NFL when he will already be old by NFL standards. I think that whether or not he redshirts this year doesn’t matter because he will be gone in 2 more years anyway. My estimation is that he is an NFL guy because he has decent size, he is plenty mobile as a pocket passer, he has great touch on the deep outs and crossing routes that distinguish NFL QBs from mere mortals, and the Wonderlic people will love him.

Meanwhile, Taysom may want to listen to some of that “safe side” advice. Pick sixes in 3 of 4 games is NOT repeat NOT “bad luck” or the fault of the line or whether we hurry or whether it is raining in China. That only happens if you exercise bad judgment on the field.

I know, this whole thing is really bugging me. I think Tanner will do very well and is he going to stick around for 3 more years if he is a 1st rounder? At age 25? Would you?

Even more crazy, I think ■■■■ Harmon wrote in the Deseret News, “Hill could have retired as a legend and here we are witnessing what happens when the injuries catch up to you. It would take a huge turn around, a miracle heading forward.”

I think Tanner can pull off anything Detmer asks of him and yet he sits. What does this do to recruiting?

With the hurry up he would have less pick 6’s. And, we would be scoring in the 30’s and 40’s winning all 4 games. End of story :slight_smile:

Ignoring the fact with the hurry up we would be scoring 30 - 50 points a game.

I got censored for writing ■■■■, as in ■■■■ Harmon. Have we gone this far? too funny.

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What is wrong with writhing ■■■■ Harmon. Is ■■■■ Harmon on some kind of watch list. I generally like ■■■■ Harmon’s articles.

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Laughing out loud, i am laughhing out loud because of cnesorship, laughing out loud am I. haha hahaha hahahahaha hahahahaha hahaha

run ■■■■ run

I’ll jump in here…

My brothers h.s. basketball coach was ■■■■ Sebek. One of my good friends Dad was named ■■■■ Hunter. Then there was tricky ■■■■ Nixon of presidential fame .My brother Richard was sometimes called Dickie bird (haha, got that one in).

I’m done.

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Dickie bird, haha, good one Jim, you got em.

Are you okay?