Floyd,
I would like to think of you as a friendly ally. I like your posting even when I do not agree with it and even when you do not agree with mine.
I am sure that you realize that almost all of us, if not all, do understand that pre season rankings are just a prediction.
Where we do have some minor disagreement in your comment is that I believe that yes, last years performance is a major part of this years prediction. Where I disagree is that I believe, as the stories I have read, the new coaching staff, their degree of experience and where they got there experiece, does matter in the making of their prediction.
Also, the recruiting done for this years team, and the ranking of that recruiting, does matter.
The fact that those making the predictions that hit the news magazines and organizations i.e ESPN, Athlon, Sporting News, CBS News. AP, Coaches USA Today News etc, are the best and most accurate available or they lose their jobs and or creditability> Many are ranked at the end of the season as to how well their predictions actually were. There ranking has much to do with the organizations that hire them and how much they get paid for their predictions.
Having said that, there are often 10 points apart in rankings between one prognosticator and another, however their range is more often than not correct. (10 point range)
BYU may be ranked 85 by Athlon Sports, (and they are), and at the same time, be ranked at 75 by another outlet or 95 by still another or something in between.
One can take it to the bank, that bar any unusual happenings, that team should be truly ranked between 75 and 95 and probably around 85.
It is fun and part of the pre season hype to use these predictions to make your own predictions on how well we should or should not do vs the the other teams we play. I see the AP and the Coaches poll 1- 25 or maybe as high as 32 as being the most accurate, but I enjoy most the CBS polls that give us predictions of 1-130 teams that gives us something to compare ourselves with others we play.